tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 1704 at 14:49, with a 13% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1704 Alaska PDX 14:49 ONT 17:10 13% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 2093 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 14:30 ONT 16:52 8% 2% 0.0% 92%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 43m Salt Lake City SLC 11:16 → ONT 12:16DL 1173 6h 31m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 2h 53m Salt Lake City SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48DL 1614 6h 34m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PDX 15:30 → SEA 16:38DL 4062 · flown by SkyWest 3h 21m Seattle SEA 19:59 → ONT 22:52DL 3884 · flown by SkyWest 7h 22m 99% 89%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 54m Denver DEN 11:25 → ONT 12:47UA 430 7h 47m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:32 → SEA 10:55DL 3953 · flown by SkyWest 3h 35m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 7h 49m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982 1h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:08 → ONT 13:32AA 2635 8h 25m 97% 86%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 05:00 → SEA 05:53AS 2431 · flown by Horizon 2h 40m Seattle SEA 08:33 → ONT 11:14AS 1364 6h 14m 100% 82%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Seattle SEA 08:25 → ONT 11:17DL 4070 · flown by SkyWest 5h 47m 95% 81%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON