Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Sun 11:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 4–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3329 PDX 06:05 → ORD 12:14 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest AA 1713 PDX 11:47 → ORD 17:44 · 14% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 8% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3329 American Flight history →	PDX 06:05	ORD 12:14	4%	3%	0.7%	89%
UA 2306 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	5%	3%	0.6%	91%
UA 2822 United	PDX 08:24	ORD 14:33	6%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 324 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	ORD 13:13	9%	3%	0.7%	74%
UA 1923 United	PDX 10:37	ORD 16:50	10%	4%	0.5%	no record
UA 2266 United	PDX 14:20	ORD 20:29	11%	4%	0.5%	no record
AA 1713 American	PDX 11:47	ORD 17:44	14%	5%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON