Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 1385 at 07:09 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15%.

Safest bet that day WN 1385 PDX 07:09 → PHX 09:46 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2986 PDX 15:31 → PHX 18:12 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 60% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1385 Southwest	PDX 07:09	PHX 09:46	6%	2%	0.5%	no record
AS 1349 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:00	PHX 09:49	9%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2658 American Flight history →	PDX 09:02	PHX 11:43	11%	5%	0.6%	90%
WN 2571 Southwest	PDX 12:28	PHX 15:06	11%	3%	0.5%	no record
AS 711 Alaska	PDX 10:30	PHX 13:13	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3136 Southwest	PDX 18:31	PHX 21:07	15%	4%	0.5%	no record
AS 723 Alaska	PDX 17:49	PHX 20:32	15%	3%	0.6%	no record
AS 716 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:52	PHX 17:35	15%	3%	0.6%	90%
AA 2986 American Flight history →	PDX 15:31	PHX 18:12	18%	6%	0.6%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON