tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 3022 at 17:36, with a 14% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 3022 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history → PDX 17:36 PSP 20:14 14% 5% 0.7% 68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 2h 12m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 5h 56m 100% 95%
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 99% 94%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 34m San Francisco SFO 08:35 → PSP 10:18UA 717 5h 03m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 49m Denver DEN 11:20 → PSP 12:41UA 687 7h 41m 99% 86%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:56 → SFO 14:45UA 751 3h 53m San Francisco SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest 7h 30m 99% 82%
AlaskaDetails → PDX 14:49 → SFO 16:40AS 236 3h 39m San Francisco SFO 20:19 → PSP 21:57AS 3356 · flown by SkyWest 7h 08m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → PDX 12:50 → DEN 16:28UA 1411 2h 48m Denver DEN 19:16 → PSP 20:34UA 2644 7h 44m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → PDX 07:00 → SFO 08:55UA 2818 3h 47m San Francisco SFO 12:42 → PSP 14:14UA 342 7h 14m 99% 76%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → PDX 08:09 → SEA 09:11AS 2190 · flown by Horizon 54m Seattle SEA 10:05 → PSP 12:37AS 1494 4h 28m 55% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON