tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, AS 1324 at 18:13, with a 11% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 1324 Alaska PDX 18:13 RNO 19:44 11% 3% 0.6% no record
AS 2206 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record PDX 15:01 RNO 16:30 10% 2% 0.0% 90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Reno on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 3h 42m Salt Lake City SLC 16:15 → RNO 16:52DL 3732 · flown by SkyWest 7h 07m 100% 94%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 3h 07m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → RNO 12:09DL 1595 6h 24m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:14 → SLC 20:06DL 1244 3h 14m Salt Lake City SLC 23:20 → RNO 23:47DL 1607 6h 33m 100% 93%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 49m Denver DEN 11:20 → RNO 12:39UA 2167 7h 39m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01UA 1896 1h 12m San Francisco SFO 08:13 → RNO 09:27UA 5394 · flown by SkyWest 4h 12m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PDX 06:30 → LAX 09:00DL 2947 3h 58m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → RNO 14:25DL 3902 · flown by SkyWest 7h 55m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 3h 32m Los Angeles LAX 16:50 → RNO 18:21DL 4126 · flown by SkyWest 7h 28m 100% 88%
DeltaDetails → PDX 17:37 → LAX 20:00DL 2551 1h 59m Los Angeles LAX 21:59 → RNO 23:28DL 3929 · flown by SkyWest 5h 51m 95% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON