Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3137 at 08:05 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 15–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 3137 PDX 08:05 → SAN 10:28 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AS 1312 PDX 14:55 → SAN 17:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 16% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3137 Southwest	PDX 08:05	SAN 10:28	8%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 4332 Southwest	PDX 15:04	SAN 17:29	15%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 721 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 09:13	SAN 11:39	16%	3%	0.7%	80%
AS 577 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:32	SAN 10:05	18%	3%	0.7%	80%
AS 1394 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 10:46	SAN 13:27	18%	3%	0.7%	84%
AS 425 Alaska	PDX 15:03	SAN 17:31	19%	3%	0.7%	no record
AS 1312 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:55	SAN 17:29	19%	3%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON