Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 1896 at 05:15 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day UA 1896 PDX 05:15 → SFO 07:01 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest UA 2615 PDX 19:22 → SFO 21:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late · usually 55% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


UA 1896 United Flight history →	PDX 05:15	SFO 07:01	3%	1%	0.6%	92%
UA 2818 United Flight history →	PDX 07:00	SFO 08:55	11%	6%	0.6%	35%
OO 5733 SkyWest	PDX 10:59	SFO 13:20	13%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 1939 United	PDX 08:54	SFO 11:01	13%	6%	0.6%	no record
AS 236 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 14:49	SFO 16:40	14%	5%	0.6%	73%
AS 1374 Alaska	PDX 19:00	SFO 20:49	16%	7%	0.6%	no record
AS 526 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 07:19	SFO 09:16	16%	8%	0.6%	59%
UA 751 United Flight history →	PDX 12:56	SFO 14:45	17%	7%	0.6%	43%
AS 1393 Alaska Flight history →	PDX 17:51	SFO 19:39	17%	7%	0.6%	67%
AS 1412 Alaska	PDX 10:48	SFO 12:38	17%	7%	0.6%	no record
UA 2615 United Flight history →	PDX 19:22	SFO 21:11	21%	11%	0.6%	55%
AS 2112 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	PDX 21:45	SFO 23:36	36%	11%	1.6%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON