Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1270 PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 98% on time Riskiest OO 3131 PDX 14:37 → SLC 17:38 · 9% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1270 Delta Flight history →	PDX 05:45	SLC 08:33	3%	1%	0.6%	98%
DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	PDX 09:45	SLC 12:33	6%	2%	0.7%	92%
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	PDX 13:15	SLC 16:07	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	PDX 17:14	SLC 20:06	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
AS 3291 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 17:40	SLC 20:41	8%	3%	0.5%	81%
AS 3355 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	PDX 10:44	SLC 13:45	8%	4%	0.5%	84%
OO 3131 SkyWest	PDX 14:37	SLC 17:38	9%	4%	0.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON