tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, QX 2336 at 06:54, with a 9% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
QX 2336 Horizon PDX 06:54 TUS 09:56 9% 3% 1.2% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tucson on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PDX 09:45 → SLC 12:33DL 1203 2h 27m Salt Lake City SLC 15:00 → TUS 16:06DL 3717 · flown by SkyWest 6h 21m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:45 → SLC 08:33DL 1270 52m Salt Lake City SLC 09:25 → TUS 10:24DL 3718 · flown by SkyWest 4h 39m 92% 87%
UnitedDetails → PDX 05:00 → DEN 08:31UA 459 2h 59m Denver DEN 11:30 → TUS 12:32UA 1188 7h 32m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PDX 13:25 → LAX 15:47DL 2766 3h 34m Los Angeles LAX 19:21 → TUS 20:59DL 3846 · flown by SkyWest 7h 34m 98% 84%
DeltaDetails → PDX 05:30 → SEA 06:35DL 4008 · flown by SkyWest 1h 50m Seattle SEA 08:25 → TUS 11:47DL 3680 · flown by SkyWest 6h 17m 95% 78%
AmericanDetails → PDX 05:07 → DFW 10:57AA 982 1h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:11 → TUS 12:26AA 2926 7h 19m 97% 76%
DeltaDetails → PDX 10:53 → LAX 13:18DL 2975 52m Los Angeles LAX 14:10 → TUS 15:50DL 3776 · flown by SkyWest 4h 57m 89% 74%
AmericanDetails → PDX 07:02 → DFW 12:50AA 371 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 14:46 → TUS 15:01AA 584 7h 59m 98% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PDX 12:03 → DFW 17:54AA 2655 51m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:45 → TUS 19:18AA 3140 7h 15m 75% 54%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON