Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: YX 4779 at 08:35 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–16%.

Safest bet that day YX 4779 PHL 08:35 → AUS 11:49 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1314 PHL 17:39 → AUS 20:30 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 68% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


YX 4779 Republic	PHL 08:35	AUS 11:49	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1088 American	PHL 10:46	AUS 13:43	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 1314 American Flight history →	PHL 17:39	AUS 20:30	16%	5%	0.6%	68%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 15m Atlanta	ATL 09:43 → AUS 11:03DL 2886	5h 38m	97%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → AUS 09:27DL 2976	5h 12m	96%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	54m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → AUS 12:25DL 2011	5h 20m	93%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON