Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 12–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


PT 5809 Piedmont	PHL 16:28	AVL 18:29	12%	4%	0.9%	no record
PT 5944 Piedmont	PHL 09:30	AVL 11:35	13%	3%	0.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Asheville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 39m Atlanta	ATL 09:58 → AVL 11:08DL 3059	5h 53m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 42m Atlanta	ATL 13:53 → AVL 15:02DL 3099	6h 57m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 12:16 → AVL 13:12DL 1182	6h 47m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 48m Atlanta	ATL 20:28 → AVL 21:38DL 3116	7h 06m	100%	84%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 05m Atlanta	ATL 16:10 → AVL 17:20DL 3101	5h 18m	99%	82%
American Details →	PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793	3h 41m Charlotte	CLT 19:26 → AVL 20:20AA 6112 · flown by Piedmont	6h 31m	99%	79%
American Details →	PHL 10:42 → CLT 12:38AA 847	1h 10m Charlotte	CLT 13:48 → AVL 14:44AA 5588 · flown by PSA	4h 02m	96%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON