Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5377 PHL 21:58 → BGR 23:46 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5134 PHL 16:43 → BGR 18:31 · 15% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5377 PSA	PHL 21:58	BGR 23:46	13%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2142 American	PHL 13:56	BGR 15:46	13%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5134 PSA	PHL 16:43	BGR 18:31	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 6123 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 08:55	BGR 10:51	10%	3%	0.0%	90%
AA 6093 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 21:50	BGR 23:45	28%	13%	4.9%	72%
AA 6038 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 14:30	BGR 16:24	28%	10%	5.6%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON