Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 752 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–21%.

Safest bet that day WN 752 PHL 07:12 → BNA 08:09 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest OH 5340 PHL 17:51 → BNA 19:11 · 21% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 752 Southwest	PHL 07:12	BNA 08:09	5%	1%	0.7%	no record
AA 1320 American	PHL 08:27	BNA 09:36	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
WN 2869 Southwest	PHL 18:52	BNA 20:05	16%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 2277 American Flight history →	PHL 21:30	BNA 22:46	16%	5%	0.9%	62%
AA 804 American	PHL 13:21	BNA 14:31	16%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 1280 American Flight history →	PHL 15:39	BNA 16:49	21%	7%	0.9%	74%
OH 5340 PSA	PHL 17:51	BNA 19:11	21%	6%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON