Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 AM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 5740 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 2% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 8–19%.

Safest bet that day DL 5740 PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30 · 2% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2404 PHL 20:04 → BOS 21:29 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 5740 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 06:00	BOS 07:30	2%	1%	0.6%	92%
DL 5845 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 09:30	BOS 10:58	3%	1%	0.6%	90%
AA 2685 American	PHL 08:59	BOS 10:36	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 2743 American	PHL 06:50	BOS 08:09	6%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 1416 American Flight history →	PHL 10:30	BOS 12:03	7%	2%	0.6%	84%
DL 5805 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 13:10	BOS 14:40	7%	2%	0.6%	72%
YX 9933 Republic	PHL 14:38	BOS 16:50	7%	2%	0.6%	no record
B6 1160 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 10:50	BOS 12:18	7%	3%	0.6%	85%
DL 5714 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 19:55	BOS 21:49	8%	2%	0.6%	70%
YX 4721 Republic	PHL 17:42	BOS 19:28	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
DL 5706 Delta flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 17:35	BOS 19:07	10%	3%	0.6%	67%
AA 3186 American	PHL 12:56	BOS 14:38	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
B6 1860 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 15:54	BOS 17:22	13%	5%	0.6%	83%
B6 560 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 20:55	BOS 22:26	14%	5%	0.7%	56%
AA 3073 American Flight history →	PHL 15:36	BOS 17:19	15%	5%	0.6%	40%
AA 2404 American	PHL 20:04	BOS 21:29	19%	4%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON