Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 10–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


PT 5839 Piedmont	PHL 13:04	CAE 15:09	10%	3%	0.8%	no record
AA 5882 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 20:08	CAE 21:58	12%	4%	1.0%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Columbia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 46m Atlanta	ATL 10:05 → CAE 11:14DL 1590	5h 59m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 32m Atlanta	ATL 12:00 → CAE 12:59DL 2944	6h 34m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 54m Atlanta	ATL 14:05 → CAE 15:06DL 3193	7h 01m	99%	90%
American Details →	PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095	2h 46m Chicago	ORD 13:24 → CAE 16:22AA 4275 · flown by Envoy	7h 24m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	2h 26m Atlanta	ATL 19:06 → CAE 20:12DL 2193	5h 40m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 09m Atlanta	ATL 16:14 → CAE 17:23DL 3032	5h 21m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 22:39 → CAE 23:43DL 3029	6h 26m	97%	87%
United Details →	PHL 13:31 → ORD 14:55UA 2784	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 17:47 → CAE 20:49UA 5594 · flown by SkyWest	7h 18m	96%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON