Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 3139 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 9–11%.

Safest bet that day AA 3139 PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53 · 4% chance 15+ min late · usually 94% on time Riskiest F9 4353 PHL 15:50 → CLT 17:46 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3139 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	CLT 07:53	4%	3%	0.7%	94%
AA 2767 American	PHL 08:31	CLT 10:24	5%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 847 American Flight history →	PHL 10:42	CLT 12:38	6%	2%	0.6%	85%
AA 793 American Flight history →	PHL 13:49	CLT 15:45	7%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 1859 American Flight history →	PHL 11:53	CLT 13:34	8%	3%	0.6%	76%
AA 2189 American	PHL 19:01	CLT 21:00	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3012 American Flight history →	PHL 16:07	CLT 17:46	11%	3%	0.6%	81%
AA 2074 American	PHL 17:05	CLT 18:50	11%	3%	0.6%	no record
F9 4353 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 15:50	CLT 17:46	16%	5%	0.9%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON