tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 20–29% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
YX 4640 Republic PHL 19:59 DCA 21:16 20% 6% 0.9% no record
AA 5363 American flown by PSA Flight history → PHL 15:41 DCA 16:51 29% 11% 2.0% 97%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Washington on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30DL 5740 · flown by Republic 1h 45m Boston BOS 09:15 → DCA 11:07DL 5693 · flown by Republic 5h 07m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 21m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → DCA 11:27DL 380 6h 12m 99% 89%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 1h 28m Charlotte CLT 09:21 → DCA 11:04AA 3043 5h 04m 99% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 10:58 → DCA 12:47DL 1798 6h 22m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540 2h 12m Detroit DTW 10:00 → DCA 11:28DL 2476 5h 18m 97% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131 3h 27m Atlanta ATL 21:59 → DCA 23:52DL 537 7h 44m 98% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHL 04:55 → DFW 07:23AA 1751 1h 17m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 08:40 → DCA 12:42AA 1177 7h 47m 96% 83%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → MIA 08:56AA 1252 1h 08m Miami MIA 10:04 → DCA 12:54AA 1612 6h 54m 96% 82%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074 47m Chicago ORD 09:57 → DCA 13:13AA 315 5h 31m 68% 54%
UnitedDetails → PHL 11:38 → ORD 13:06UA 2207 54m Chicago ORD 14:00 → DCA 17:12UA 1314 5h 34m 67% 50%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:35 → BOS 19:07DL 5706 · flown by Republic 58m Boston BOS 20:05 → DCA 22:03DL 5666 · flown by Republic 4h 28m 57% 36%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON