Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: WN 3147 at 06:09 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–18%.

Safest bet that day WN 3147 PHL 06:09 → DEN 07:59 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4335 PHL 17:09 → DEN 19:01 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 10% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3147 Southwest	PHL 06:09	DEN 07:59	5%	1%	0.5%	no record
UA 1423 United	PHL 08:00	DEN 10:08	7%	3%	0.5%	no record
UA 1537 United Flight history →	PHL 10:00	DEN 12:01	7%	2%	0.5%	79%
WN 384 Southwest	PHL 12:28	DEN 14:19	8%	2%	0.5%	no record
AA 1313 American Flight history →	PHL 09:25	DEN 11:32	10%	3%	0.6%	78%
UA 2644 United Flight history →	PHL 16:14	DEN 18:25	12%	3%	0.5%	60%
AA 2878 American	PHL 21:24	DEN 23:28	12%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 2082 American	PHL 13:14	DEN 15:24	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 4335 Southwest	PHL 17:09	DEN 19:01	18%	3%	0.5%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	52m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → DEN 09:47DL 1113	5h 37m	95%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON