Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 10 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1751 at 04:55 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–28%.

Safest bet that day AA 1751 PHL 04:55 → DFW 07:23 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest AA 2533 PHL 17:51 → DFW 20:32 · 28% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1751 American Flight history →	PHL 04:55	DFW 07:23	9%	3%	0.8%	92%
AA 583 American Flight history →	PHL 07:02	DFW 09:42	10%	3%	0.8%	90%
AA 3307 American	PHL 08:30	DFW 11:12	11%	4%	0.8%	no record
AA 3326 American Flight history →	PHL 10:50	DFW 13:27	13%	4%	0.9%	76%
AA 415 American Flight history →	PHL 12:52	DFW 15:31	14%	5%	1.0%	73%
AA 402 American Flight history →	PHL 15:00	DFW 17:50	18%	6%	0.9%	68%
F9 3985 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 05:54	DFW 08:24	19%	7%	1.4%	73%
AA 1115 American Flight history →	PHL 20:59	DFW 23:29	20%	5%	1.0%	69%
AA 2356 American Flight history →	PHL 16:22	DFW 19:09	22%	7%	0.9%	69%
AA 2533 American Flight history →	PHL 17:51	DFW 20:32	28%	6%	1.0%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON