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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 93% chance of reaching Panama City Beach on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Panama City Beach on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Panama City Beach is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 10:41 → ECP 10:48DL 3045 6h 33m 100% 93%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 38m Atlanta ATL 13:49 → ECP 13:54DL 2823 6h 49m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279 2h 26m Atlanta ATL 19:06 → ECP 19:20DL 3053 5h 48m 99% 92%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 1h 56m Atlanta ATL 16:01 → ECP 16:12DL 3094 5h 10m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692 3h 58m Atlanta ATL 23:27 → ECP 23:37DL 3131 7h 20m 98% 91%
AmericanDetails → PHL 04:55 → DFW 07:23AA 1751 2h 23m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:46 → ECP 11:52AA 3625 · flown by Envoy 7h 57m 100% 88%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 2h 55m Charlotte CLT 10:48 → ECP 11:32AA 5262 · flown by PSA 6h 32m 100% 87%
AmericanDetails → PHL 11:53 → CLT 13:34AA 1859 3h 13m Charlotte CLT 16:47 → ECP 17:31AA 5297 · flown by PSA 6h 38m 96% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON