Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 11–19% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day B6 375 PHL 06:00 → FLL 08:47 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 2462 PHL 18:41 → FLL 21:43 · 19% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


B6 375 JetBlue Flight history →	PHL 06:00	FLL 08:47	11%	3%	1.0%	71%
AA 1333 American Flight history →	PHL 09:11	FLL 12:18	12%	4%	1.0%	79%
AA 2718 American	PHL 13:55	FLL 16:59	15%	5%	1.0%	no record
F9 4455 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 12:01	FLL 15:06	18%	6%	1.2%	74%
AA 2462 American	PHL 18:41	FLL 21:43	19%	6%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON