Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 3:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5341 PSA	PHL 10:43	GRR 12:51	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5493 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 21:50	GRR 23:58	11%	4%	0.8%	73%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Grand Rapids on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 30m Atlanta	ATL 09:49 → GRR 11:43DL 2547	6h 28m	99%	94%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	3h 17m Chicago	ORD 10:47 → GRR 13:00UA 1297	7h 00m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	1h 21m Detroit	DTW 12:52 → GRR 13:52DL 5390 · flown by Endeavor	4h 06m	97%	92%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	3h 52m Detroit	DTW 23:07 → GRR 00:06 +1DL 4880 · flown by Endeavor	6h 38m	97%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 05m Minneapolis	MSP 08:25 → GRR 10:53DL 3990 · flown by SkyWest	5h 13m	97%	91%
American Details →	PHL 12:33 → ORD 13:46AA 1854	3h 24m Chicago	ORD 17:10 → GRR 19:20AA 4729 · flown by Republic	6h 47m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → GRR 21:51DL 2210	7h 19m	99%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	2h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 16:02 → GRR 18:26DL 1555	6h 50m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON