Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 584 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17%.

Safest bet that day UA 584 PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest AA 2486 PHL 13:06 → IAH 15:48 · 18% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 584 United Flight history →	PHL 06:15	IAH 08:44	7%	2%	0.6%	95%
UA 2038 United Flight history →	PHL 13:04	IAH 15:35	14%	4%	0.6%	87%
AA 840 American	PHL 08:29	IAH 10:52	15%	3%	0.7%	no record
UA 2474 United Flight history →	PHL 18:15	IAH 20:56	17%	6%	0.7%	85%
AA 889 American Flight history →	PHL 20:07	IAH 23:10	17%	5%	0.8%	69%
AA 2486 American	PHL 13:06	IAH 15:48	18%	5%	0.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON