Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–13% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 4637 PHL 18:19 → IND 20:45 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time Riskiest AA 682 PHL 21:56 → IND 00:10 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 4637 American flown by Republic Flight history →	PHL 18:19	IND 20:45	7%	2%	0.6%	76%
AA 1436 American	PHL 08:47	IND 10:55	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
AA 5240 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:45	IND 12:55	8%	2%	0.7%	86%
OH 5328 PSA	PHL 14:29	IND 16:41	8%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 682 American Flight history →	PHL 21:56	IND 00:10	13%	3%	0.6%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON