tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 10:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–11% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1480 American PHL 10:01 MCI 11:56 9% 3% 0.6% no record
AA 3203 American PHL 20:45 MCI 22:56 11% 4% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 41m Atlanta ATL 10:00 → MCI 11:11DL 2908 6h 56m 100% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 2h 44m Minneapolis MSP 10:04 → MCI 11:37DL 1349 6h 57m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:05 → MCI 12:13DL 2747 6h 48m 99% 91%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 13m Atlanta ATL 13:24 → MCI 14:29DL 1443 7h 24m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 3h 23m Chicago ORD 10:53 → MCI 12:40UA 5997 · flown by SkyWest 7h 40m 100% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279 3h 28m Atlanta ATL 20:08 → MCI 21:24DL 3023 7h 52m 100% 89%
UnitedDetails → PHL 09:27 → ORD 10:37UA 1811 2h 03m Chicago ORD 12:40 → MCI 14:20UA 561 5h 53m 98% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331 1h 34m Detroit DTW 15:54 → MCI 16:54DL 2761 5h 18m 98% 89%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON