Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1634 at 07:15 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1634 PHL 07:15 → MCO 09:40 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1673 PHL 19:58 → MCO 22:34 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1634 American	PHL 07:15	MCO 09:40	8%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2084 American Flight history →	PHL 08:59	MCO 11:46	10%	3%	0.7%	78%
F9 1807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 08:10	MCO 10:52	11%	5%	1.3%	78%
AA 3268 American Flight history →	PHL 10:59	MCO 13:35	12%	4%	0.8%	78%
AA 3153 American Flight history →	PHL 12:59	MCO 15:41	13%	4%	0.8%	88%
F9 2507 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 10:11	MCO 12:56	14%	6%	1.2%	70%
WN 2370 Southwest	PHL 13:51	MCO 16:16	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 2502 American Flight history →	PHL 14:13	MCO 16:59	16%	5%	0.9%	80%
AA 646 American Flight history →	PHL 18:01	MCO 20:49	17%	6%	0.8%	70%
F9 2505 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:00	MCO 20:02	19%	8%	1.4%	63%
F9 4173 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 14:53	MCO 17:33	20%	7%	1.8%	65%
AA 1673 American Flight history →	PHL 19:58	MCO 22:34	22%	6%	0.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON