Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 5040 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 10:35	MEM 11:56	13%	3%	0.7%	87%
AA 5387 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:05	MEM 21:34	15%	4%	0.7%	75%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 47m Atlanta	ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778	7h 07m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 09:10 → MEM 09:27DL 2071	5h 12m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 09:10 → MEM 11:28DL 3989 · flown by SkyWest	6h 48m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 37m Atlanta	ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:14DL 733	7h 09m	99%	89%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 15m Charlotte	CLT 10:08 → MEM 10:58AA 1790	5h 58m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	59m Detroit	DTW 08:47 → MEM 09:46DL 1627	4h 36m	95%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 36m Atlanta	ATL 16:41 → MEM 17:09DL 1681	6h 07m	99%	88%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 30m Chicago	ORD 09:00 → MEM 11:05UA 5593 · flown by SkyWest	6h 05m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON