Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1252 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22–33%.

Safest bet that day AA 1252 PHL 06:00 → MIA 08:56 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest F9 1203 PHL 17:25 → MIA 20:26 · 33% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 12% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1252 American Flight history →	PHL 06:00	MIA 08:56	6%	2%	0.7%	89%
AA 2184 American Flight history →	PHL 08:15	MIA 11:12	8%	2%	0.7%	91%
DL 1399 Delta	PHL 08:41	MIA 11:25	10%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 1989 American	PHL 11:34	MIA 14:34	15%	6%	1.0%	no record
AA 2132 American	PHL 19:38	MIA 22:29	22%	10%	1.9%	no record
AA 3061 American	PHL 14:41	MIA 17:41	27%	11%	2.1%	no record
AA 3306 American Flight history →	PHL 16:25	MIA 19:27	28%	11%	2.3%	75%
DL 776 Delta	PHL 16:56	MIA 19:37	33%	12%	1.8%	no record
F9 1203 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 17:25	MIA 20:26	33%	15%	2.2%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON