Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


OH 5227 PSA	PHL 13:06	MSN 14:30	15%	6%	0.9%	no record
AA 5512 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:04	MSN 21:41	15%	9%	1.2%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Madison on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Madison is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331	2h 37m Detroit	DTW 16:57 → MSN 17:20DL 5245 · flown by Endeavor	5h 44m	100%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 01m Atlanta	ATL 09:20 → MSN 10:22DL 2681	6h 07m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	2h 52m Minneapolis	MSP 10:12 → MSN 11:19DL 4102 · flown by SkyWest	6h 39m	99%	90%
American Details →	PHL 08:58 → ORD 10:38AA 2095	3h 03m Chicago	ORD 13:41 → MSN 14:41AA 4038 · flown by Envoy	6h 43m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:30 → BOS 10:58DL 5845 · flown by Republic	2h 10m Boston	BOS 13:08 → MSN 15:03DL 5603 · flown by Republic	6h 33m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	3h 41m Minneapolis	MSP 17:02 → MSN 18:14DL 5331 · flown by Endeavor	7h 38m	99%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131	3h 00m Atlanta	ATL 21:32 → MSN 22:38DL 2144	7h 30m	99%	87%
American Details →	PHL 12:33 → ORD 13:46AA 1854	3h 36m Chicago	ORD 17:22 → MSN 18:44AA 3953 · flown by Envoy	7h 11m	98%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON