Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 3–9% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2791 PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20 · 3% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest DL 2594 PHL 18:57 → MSP 20:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2791 Delta Flight history →	PHL 05:40	MSP 07:20	3%	2%	0.6%	88%
DL 2688 Delta Flight history →	PHL 11:36	MSP 13:21	6%	2%	0.5%	87%
OH 5343 PSA	PHL 09:58	MSP 12:05	7%	3%	0.7%	no record
DL 2679 Delta Flight history →	PHL 15:38	MSP 17:37	8%	3%	0.6%	82%
DL 2594 Delta Flight history →	PHL 18:57	MSP 20:53	9%	3%	0.6%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON