Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 9–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day


AA 2354 American	PHL 09:09	MSY 11:16	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 549 American	PHL 19:31	MSY 21:28	14%	4%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New Orleans on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New Orleans is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 46m Atlanta	ATL 11:05 → MSY 11:37DL 2542	7h 22m	100%	94%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 34m Atlanta	ATL 13:45 → MSY 14:17DL 3157	7h 12m	99%	92%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:00 → BOS 07:30DL 5740 · flown by Republic	3h 50m Boston	BOS 11:20 → MSY 13:56DL 1398	8h 56m	100%	91%
United Details →	PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44UA 584	3h 11m Houston	IAH 11:55 → MSY 13:14UA 2385	7h 59m	100%	90%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	3h 28m Chicago	ORD 10:58 → MSY 13:26UA 1532	8h 26m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	3h 52m Atlanta	ATL 17:57 → MSY 18:34DL 678	7h 32m	100%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	52m Detroit	DTW 08:40 → MSY 10:14DL 2790	5h 04m	95%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 14m Atlanta	ATL 19:54 → MSY 20:28DL 1450	6h 56m	99%	88%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON