Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 9:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Tomorrow looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5634 PHL 10:44 → MYR 12:43 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6107 PHL 08:50 → MYR 10:36 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Against a calm day 9% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 8% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OH 5634 PSA	PHL 10:44	MYR 12:43	6%	3%	0.7%	no record
PT 5863 Piedmont	PHL 13:04	MYR 14:53	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
PT 6081 Piedmont	PHL 20:52	MYR 22:40	10%	4%	0.9%	no record
AA 6107 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 08:50	MYR 10:36	10%	3%	0.7%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON