Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · 16 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: UA 660 at 06:00 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–32%.

Safest bet that day UA 660 PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest UA 308 PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 63% on time

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 660 United Flight history →	PHL 06:00	ORD 07:30	9%	3%	1.4%	88%
AA 2095 American Flight history →	PHL 08:58	ORD 10:38	14%	4%	1.6%	81%
UA 1811 United Flight history →	PHL 09:27	ORD 10:37	17%	5%	1.0%	87%
AA 865 American	PHL 10:47	ORD 12:15	18%	7%	1.8%	no record
AA 2668 American	PHL 22:12	ORD 23:27	19%	8%	1.8%	no record
AA 3074 American Flight history →	PHL 07:42	ORD 09:10	21%	5%	1.7%	82%
UA 2784 United Flight history →	PHL 13:31	ORD 14:55	21%	10%	0.9%	76%
UA 2207 United Flight history →	PHL 11:38	ORD 13:06	21%	8%	1.0%	81%
AA 1854 American Flight history →	PHL 12:33	ORD 13:47	21%	9%	2.0%	79%
AA 821 American	PHL 14:41	ORD 16:09	25%	10%	2.4%	no record
AA 2155 American	PHL 20:49	ORD 22:03	26%	11%	1.9%	no record
AA 470 American Flight history →	PHL 15:45	ORD 17:29	26%	14%	2.5%	64%
AA 2041 American	PHL 17:58	ORD 19:38	29%	12%	1.9%	no record
AA 490 American Flight history →	PHL 19:44	ORD 21:00	29%	12%	2.0%	60%
UA 2665 United Flight history →	PHL 18:55	ORD 20:14	32%	14%	1.0%	55%
UA 308 United Flight history →	PHL 17:00	ORD 18:33	32%	15%	1.0%	63%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON