Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–16% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 6122 PHL 09:22 → ORF 10:44 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest AA 5375 PHL 19:37 → ORF 20:50 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 76% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 6122 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 09:22	ORF 10:44	13%	2%	0.8%	84%
PT 6055 Piedmont	PHL 15:45	ORF 17:04	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
OH 5017 PSA	PHL 11:10	ORF 12:23	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 5632 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 16:55	ORF 18:19	15%	6%	0.7%	72%
AA 5375 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 19:37	ORF 20:50	16%	6%	0.7%	76%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON