Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 7:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 94% chance of reaching Portland on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 2245 American	PHL 20:01	PDX 23:05	14%	4%	0.7%	no record
AS 1787 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 17:46	PDX 20:37	18%	3%	0.7%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	3h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 10:58 → PDX 12:39DL 1661	9h 59m	99%	94%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	10h 43m	100%	93%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	2h 37m Minneapolis	MSP 15:58 → PDX 17:35DL 2008	8h 59m	99%	92%
United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 38m Chicago	ORD 09:08 → PDX 11:43UA 751	8h 43m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	2h 47m Atlanta	ATL 16:52 → PDX 18:56DL 503	9h 54m	99%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	1h 06m Detroit	DTW 08:54 → PDX 10:36DL 2171	7h 26m	97%	90%
United Details →	PHL 10:00 → DEN 12:01UA 1537	3h 59m Denver	DEN 16:00 → PDX 17:44UA 1337	10h 44m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 19:50 → PDX 21:58DL 691	10h 26m	99%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON