Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 9:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 7–14% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 428 PHL 07:05 → PHX 09:05 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1984 PHL 19:29 → PHX 21:32 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 428 American Flight history →	PHL 07:05	PHX 09:05	7%	3%	0.6%	88%
AA 2644 American	PHL 09:27	PHX 11:38	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 478 American Flight history →	PHL 10:56	PHX 13:06	9%	3%	0.6%	93%
AA 765 American Flight history →	PHL 13:02	PHX 15:11	11%	4%	0.6%	75%
AA 1984 American Flight history →	PHL 19:29	PHX 21:32	14%	3%	0.6%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	1h 16m Detroit	DTW 12:47 → PHX 13:50DL 813	7h 04m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	51m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 46m	97%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	47m Detroit	DTW 08:35 → PHX 09:44DL 1070	6h 34m	94%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON