Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 9–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 5032 PHL 09:10 → PIT 10:42 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 71% on time Riskiest AA 2901 PHL 19:24 → PIT 20:46 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 11% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 11% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 5032 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 09:10	PIT 10:42	9%	3%	0.7%	71%
OH 5259 PSA	PHL 15:36	PIT 17:04	10%	4%	0.7%	no record
OH 5132 PSA	PHL 13:05	PIT 14:32	11%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 2731 American	PHL 17:46	PIT 19:17	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
AA 2901 American Flight history →	PHL 19:24	PIT 20:46	12%	4%	0.6%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON