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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 2:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Pensacola on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:39 → PNS 10:51DL 3198 6h 36m 100% 90%
AmericanDetails → PHL 04:55 → DFW 07:23AA 1751 1h 53m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:16 → PNS 11:19AA 3982 · flown by Envoy 7h 24m 100% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 2h 39m Atlanta ATL 12:50 → PNS 13:00DL 1640 5h 55m 98% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 2h 43m Atlanta ATL 16:48 → PNS 17:03DL 2211 6h 01m 99% 87%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139 3h 01m Charlotte CLT 10:54 → PNS 11:44AA 2476 6h 44m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692 3h 46m Atlanta ATL 23:15 → PNS 23:30DL 2807 7h 13m 98% 86%
DeltaDetails → PHL 16:08 → ATL 18:32DL 2131 2h 13m Atlanta ATL 20:45 → PNS 20:58DL 3021 5h 50m 98% 85%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:07 → CLT 17:46AA 3012 3h 52m Charlotte CLT 21:38 → PNS 22:25AA 3131 7h 18m 99% 80%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON