Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 1:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 7 nonstops are 9–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day AA 3152 PHL 10:30 → RDU 11:54 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 706 PHL 17:55 → RDU 19:22 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3152 American	PHL 10:30	RDU 11:54	9%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 5590 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 08:41	RDU 10:22	10%	4%	0.7%	62%
AA 2692 American	PHL 22:00	RDU 23:33	11%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 2071 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 09:25	RDU 11:04	11%	4%	0.9%	71%
OH 5663 PSA	PHL 13:09	RDU 14:49	14%	5%	0.7%	no record
OH 5348 PSA	PHL 15:36	RDU 17:16	15%	5%	0.7%	no record
AA 706 American Flight history →	PHL 17:55	RDU 19:22	18%	5%	0.7%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON