Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 7 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: one nonstop, OH 5018 at 15:40, with a 7% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day OH 5018 PHL 15:40 → RIC 17:04 · 7% chance 15+ min late

Against a calm day 7% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 7% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


OH 5018 PSA	PHL 15:40	RIC 17:04	7%	4%	0.7%	no record
AA 5843 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 13:12	RIC 14:35	11%	2%	0.0%	89%
AA 5846 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:03	RIC 10:27	12%	5%	0.0%	88%
AA 5894 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 09:05	RIC 10:29	23%	13%	0.0%	77%
AA 5895 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 15:40	RIC 17:03	29%	11%	2.8%	71%
AA 5964 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 20:31	RIC 21:56	32%	17%	4.2%	68%
AA 5969 American flown by Piedmont no forecast: 12-month record	PHL 18:30	RIC 19:57	36%	29%	1.4%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON