Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 13–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 5817 PHL 21:23 → ROC 22:59 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 6126 PHL 09:38 → ROC 10:51 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time

Against a calm day 14% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 14% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 5817 Piedmont	PHL 21:23	ROC 22:59	13%	3%	0.9%	no record
PT 5892 Piedmont	PHL 13:37	ROC 15:09	13%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 6108 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 17:54	ROC 19:28	13%	3%	0.8%	64%
AA 6126 American flown by Piedmont Flight history →	PHL 09:38	ROC 10:51	15%	2%	0.7%	90%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON