Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 86% chance of reaching Fort Myers on time.

Nonstops that day


AA 2365 American Flight history →	PHL 09:12	RSW 12:12	13%	4%	2.7%	73%
AA 2439 American Flight history →	PHL 14:32	RSW 17:33	20%	8%	1.9%	68%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660	1h 52m Chicago	ORD 09:22 → RSW 13:18UA 1036	7h 18m	99%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	3h 06m Atlanta	ATL 10:25 → RSW 12:11DL 1153	6h 56m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → RSW 13:27DL 2400	7h 47m	99%	86%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	2h 42m Atlanta	ATL 12:53 → RSW 14:35DL 1196	6h 30m	98%	85%
Delta Details →	PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968	2h 57m Detroit	DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225	7h 36m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:10 → DTW 07:48DL 1540	48m Detroit	DTW 08:36 → RSW 11:39DL 2001	5h 29m	93%	83%
United Details →	PHL 11:38 → ORD 13:06UA 2207	3h 20m Chicago	ORD 16:26 → RSW 20:34UA 2618	8h 56m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:17 → ATL 19:29DL 1692	3h 11m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → RSW 00:23 +1DL 1217	7h 06m	97%	81%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON