tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching San Diego on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AA 1621 American Flight history → PHL 08:39 SAN 11:20 11% 3% 0.7% 90%
AA 3245 American Flight history → PHL 18:06 SAN 21:04 18% 4% 0.8% 77%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791 1h 31m Minneapolis MSP 08:51 → SAN 10:38DL 2121 7h 58m 99% 90%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 1h 16m Chicago ORD 08:46 → SAN 11:21UA 660 8h 21m 99% 90%
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:59 → SAN 11:43DL 843 9h 28m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 18:00 → SAN 19:41DL 712 10h 39m 100% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 43m 100% 87%
UnitedDetails → PHL 09:27 → ORD 10:37UA 1811 3h 05m Chicago ORD 13:42 → SAN 16:00UA 559 9h 33m 99% 87%
DeltaDetails → PHL 12:36 → DTW 14:20DL 2331 2h 15m Detroit DTW 16:35 → SAN 18:14DL 369 8h 38m 99% 85%
DeltaDetails → PHL 09:46 → DTW 11:31DL 2968 1h 03m Detroit DTW 12:34 → SAN 14:26DL 761 7h 40m 96% 85%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON