Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–10% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day PT 6091 PHL 09:35 → SAV 11:53 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 5273 PHL 20:00 → SAV 22:27 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 78% on time

Against a calm day 10% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


PT 6091 Piedmont	PHL 09:35	SAV 11:53	9%	2%	0.8%	no record
AA 2708 American	PHL 14:23	SAV 16:12	10%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 5273 American flown by PSA Flight history →	PHL 20:00	SAV 22:27	10%	3%	0.8%	78%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON