Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 11:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: DL 2092 at 07:05 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day DL 2092 PHL 07:05 → SEA 10:01 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time Riskiest AS 443 PHL 18:59 → SEA 21:43 · 27% chance 15+ min late · usually 66% on time

Against a calm day 20% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 15% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2092 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:05	SEA 10:01	11%	3%	0.6%	72%
AA 2870 American Flight history →	PHL 08:26	SEA 11:47	16%	3%	0.6%	83%
AS 1898 Alaska	PHL 07:03	SEA 09:43	22%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1823 American	PHL 19:37	SEA 22:43	23%	4%	0.6%	no record
AS 443 Alaska Flight history →	PHL 18:59	SEA 21:43	27%	4%	0.7%	66%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	1h 45m Minneapolis	MSP 09:05 → SEA 10:59DL 868	8h 19m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	1h 54m Minneapolis	MSP 15:15 → SEA 17:00DL 877	8h 24m	98%	89%
Delta Details →	PHL 18:57 → MSP 20:53DL 2594	1h 15m Minneapolis	MSP 22:08 → SEA 23:58DL 505	8h 01m	91%	84%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON