Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1524 at 08:28 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–18%.

Safest bet that day AA 1524 PHL 08:28 → SFO 11:29 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time Riskiest AA 2045 PHL 17:51 → SFO 21:05 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Against a calm day 13% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 13% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1524 American Flight history →	PHL 08:28	SFO 11:29	8%	3%	0.7%	82%
UA 2352 United	PHL 09:20	SFO 12:04	10%	3%	0.6%	no record
AA 3295 American Flight history →	PHL 15:36	SFO 18:39	11%	4%	0.7%	81%
AA 2506 American	PHL 19:29	SFO 22:37	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
UA 1575 United Flight history →	PHL 18:34	SFO 21:45	18%	4%	0.6%	59%
AA 2045 American Flight history →	PHL 17:51	SFO 21:05	18%	4%	0.7%	64%

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → SFO 10:20DL 693	8h 05m	98%	91%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	1h 31m Atlanta	ATL 09:59 → SFO 11:55DL 672	8h 30m	98%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 11:36 → MSP 13:21DL 2688	1h 46m Minneapolis	MSP 15:07 → SFO 17:12DL 756	8h 36m	98%	89%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON