Wednesday, October 7 · typical odds for a Wednesday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sat 12:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Salt Lake City on time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2023 Delta Flight history →	PHL 07:30	SLC 10:10	10%	2%	0.6%	86%
AA 2630 American Flight history →	PHL 19:43	SLC 22:35	20%	6%	1.0%	57%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Salt Lake City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Salt Lake City is 2 h behind Philadelphia). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269	2h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:10 → SLC 12:10DL 387	8h 55m	100%	92%
Delta Details →	PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152	3h 28m Atlanta	ATL 11:56 → SLC 13:50DL 663	9h 25m	99%	91%
American Details →	PHL 13:02 → PHX 15:11AA 765	3h 51m Phoenix	PHX 19:02 → SLC 21:50AA 4968 · flown by SkyWest	10h 48m	100%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180	3h 44m Atlanta	ATL 13:55 → SLC 15:51DL 423	9h 46m	99%	88%
American Details →	PHL 06:00 → CLT 07:53AA 3139	2h 21m Charlotte	CLT 10:14 → SLC 12:35AA 1895	8h 35m	100%	88%
Delta Details →	PHL 12:02 → ATL 14:05DL 2270	3h 55m Atlanta	ATL 18:00 → SLC 20:02DL 653	10h 00m	100%	87%
Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	50m Minneapolis	MSP 08:10 → SLC 09:59DL 2628	6h 19m	92%	87%
United Details →	PHL 06:15 → IAH 08:44UA 584	1h 11m Houston	IAH 09:55 → SLC 12:23UA 2242	8h 08m	95%	86%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON