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Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Tue 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Tomorrow: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:15, is the safest bet: 89% chance of reaching Sarasota/Bradenton on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sarasota/Bradenton on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → PHL 05:15 → ATL 07:19DL 1269 58m Atlanta ATL 08:17 → SRQ 09:52DL 3196 4h 37m 97% 89%
DeltaDetails → PHL 08:05 → ATL 10:11DL 1180 3h 34m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → SRQ 15:23DL 3115 7h 18m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 06:25 → ATL 08:28DL 1152 2h 20m Atlanta ATL 10:48 → SRQ 12:27DL 3104 6h 02m 99% 88%
DeltaDetails → PHL 14:32 → ATL 16:40DL 2279 1h 37m Atlanta ATL 18:17 → SRQ 19:55DL 3109 5h 23m 97% 85%
UnitedDetails → PHL 06:00 → ORD 07:30UA 660 3h 40m Chicago ORD 11:10 → SRQ 15:12UA 2287 9h 12m 100% 84%
AmericanDetails → PHL 06:29 → CLT 08:04AA 3139 2h 23m Charlotte CLT 10:27 → SRQ 12:29AA 1452 6h 00m 99% 80%
AmericanDetails → PHL 13:49 → CLT 15:45AA 793 3h 27m Charlotte CLT 19:12 → SRQ 21:07AA 2604 7h 18m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → PHL 16:48 → MIA 19:40AA 3306 2h 16m Miami MIA 21:56 → SRQ 23:05AA 4071 · flown by Envoy 6h 17m 93% 62%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON