Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 6:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Wed, Oct 7: AA 1981 at 09:03 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 22%.

Safest bet that day AA 1981 PHL 09:03 → TPA 11:57 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 2269 PHL 20:07 → TPA 23:01 · 22% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Against a calm day 15% average chance a nonstop arrives 15+ min late; 9% for the same flights on a calm-weather day

Every nonstop on Wed, Oct 7

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late, with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 1981 American	PHL 09:03	TPA 11:57	9%	2%	1.3%	no record
AA 2015 American	PHL 10:41	TPA 13:45	9%	3%	1.8%	no record
AA 2412 American Flight history →	PHL 12:33	TPA 15:21	13%	4%	1.8%	71%
F9 4807 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 11:52	TPA 14:46	14%	6%	2.1%	75%
AA 2322 American Flight history →	PHL 19:40	TPA 22:27	22%	5%	1.8%	62%
F9 2269 Frontier Flight history →	PHL 20:07	TPA 23:01	22%	8%	2.1%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON