Wednesday, October 7 · our forecast odds · issued Mon 5:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Wed, Oct 7: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 05:40, is the safest bet: 90% chance of reaching Traverse City on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Ranked by chance you reach Traverse City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	PHL 05:40 → MSP 07:20DL 2791	3h 04m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → TVC 12:54DL 3995 · flown by SkyWest	7h 14m	99%	90%
Delta Details →	PHL 17:28 → DTW 19:15DL 1391	3h 44m Detroit	DTW 22:59 → TVC 00:08 +1DL 2424	6h 40m	97%	83%
American Details →	PHL 07:42 → ORD 09:10AA 3074	3h 10m Chicago	ORD 12:20 → TVC 14:36AA 6368 · flown by SkyWest	6h 54m	99%	80%
United Details →	PHL 17:00 → ORD 18:33UA 308	2h 52m Chicago	ORD 21:25 → TVC 23:32UA 2071	6h 32m	97%	69%
United Details →	PHL 13:31 → ORD 14:55UA 2784	3h 29m Chicago	ORD 18:24 → TVC 20:32UA 677	7h 01m	96%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day; flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Wed, Oct 7 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON